I'm in the need to monitor significant change to a moving average on the number of Exchange connections. Sometimes the related Exchange services do not stop but there is a sudden drop in connection due to a problem. We have a very predictable connection wave graph throughout the day. How can I monitor a sudden significant decrease and alarm on it? For example: If we have 1000 connections with no more then a 5% increase or decrease for the last 3 pulls. Then suddenly we have a 20% decrease. How can I alarm on sudden decrease of a moving average?